There is a good deal of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, where the final event will pay $50k into 1st for those who did qualify to play inside. I will be pursuing those as well since we’ve never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I do think we have a enjoyable card that Saturday and that I am ready to enter this 3-week break using a winning night at UFC 227. Here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in all DFS MMA and he’s the maximum ceiling too. DJ is your P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he has already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I’m plugging in my cash LU this week and I advise you to do the same. DJ is almost guaranteed to score at 100-points at a triumph, and he’s got a -550 betting line stating he must find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. It’s possible to stack this fight as well, however I think DJ is a must.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a great fight to goal this week since it most likely won’t go to a choice. Holland just fought the Contender Series a few weeks ago and didn’t receive a contract. But today he is on the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers from the division. The ITD lineup for Santos is now -210 and the under 1.5 rounds gambling line is -160. That tells me Vegas believes this battle ends ancient and Santos is the guy which should pick up the end. At $9.2k, he easily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I presume he has a good shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him in money game formats however because both men have very low floors, so this is a GPP only play for me personally.
Underdog drama of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everyone is writing off Brett Johns following his loss to Aljo Sterling and that’s exactly why he’s so economical on DraftKings this weekend. Together with the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside in a decision win. Of course, we’re concerned about him getting caught in a guillotine if he shoots for takedowns, but when he can avoid that I think he can win this fight and 10x his salary with a win. I don’t think Johns will want to hit with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I do believe he will be shooting takedowns. Those takedowns could get him filed, or they could get him a win on the scorecards. However, this makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he is a solid underdog to select in GPPs this past week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even in a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a finish to pay that price label off with her fashion. She has the worst style potential for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she’s a triumph here she could end up scoring significantly less than some losers on the card. Taylor is going to be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so if you want to invest your cash on a 115 pound woman using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be quite contrarian taking that path. But I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I was making 150 lineups, I would still full vanish Taylor here.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks