This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I like the new choice of competitions and prizes. The most important GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for money games, and I was just going to pick the principal occasion stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and once I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a fantastic money game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has because I do believe this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a top floor since this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this battle with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I really do think he has 100-point upside into a conclusion, and that I think he could complete this fight. However, I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that is why he is my money game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang on the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but this is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week rather than my money game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in high flooring and that is not what we have here. I like this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he dropped a determination at the price and scored 30-40 points, we would simply have to hit on our other areas. We don’t want 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I do not expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog play of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this struggle to stay standing for as long as it continues. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs since he will have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a fair amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he is my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he’s fought so I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is just not valuable for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by obtaining a win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 54-34 for +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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