Will this get any simpler? Based on how the specialist NFL analysts of Bleacher Report are currently faring against the spread this season, it surely can not get much tougher.
Deciding at every game, Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski had yet another tough streak in Week 12, dropping their record to 251-259-18. Individually and as a team, here’s the damage through 12 months (a week’s documents in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus choices: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December looming, we asked longtime sports gambling analyst Dave Tuley when there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for the gambling public or if the sportsbooks will continue to benefit from bigger samples late in the season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not enough to get carried away.
“There was a period less than a dozen years ago where I had a lot of years in a row where I simply killed it the second half of this year and in December,” he said. “At that time, I felt as though it was only the time of year when the good teams were overrated and the bad teams were being underrated, and with parity what it was, the underdogs were performing a whole lot better at that time.”
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have struck advantages that are consistently significant . “As much as bettors want to think that we are becoming smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the very same things we are, and they are adjusting and making it tough also.”
However, he still believes it is likely to pick out lines that have been exaggerated by midseason slumps. Specifically, he pointed in the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints at a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints will be favored by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which will seem high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That is [a reflection of] how the Saints have been enjoying,” Tuley said. “For the books to balance their action, they must place it at that number.”
It is something to keep in mind as we enter the 2018 season’s last month. It might not save your entire year as a bettor, but any advice helps if you’ve been following us all year.
Here is what Gagnon, Davenport and Sobleski are considering heading to the first 16-game slate in more than two months.
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