Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson will start from the pole position for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 (3 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Does the seven-time champion merit a place on your lineup? We have dissected the numbers to offer you a proposed lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration as you make roster decisions.
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Bear in mind that the garage locks in the conclusion of Stage 2. After the final stage begins, your roster is secured in.
RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day in Texas:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Joey Logano
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Chase Elliott
Toilet: Kurt Busch
Visiting the back: Alex Bowman (backup car), Ryan Newman (neglected pre-race inspection double )
RELATED: Odds for Texas | 10-lap averages from Texas | Podcast: Fantasy Fastlane
Analysis: The prosperity of big names beginning out of the top 10 on Sunday makes this a bit more complicated than previous weeks. Can you risk the usage? Who is worth saving? It is a delicate balance where owners need to assess risk vs. reward.
I am rolling with half of my original lineup. Logano has been strong with this race bundle — top-two finishes in both Las Vegas and Fontana. Blaney had a strong 10-lap average, he’s a hot series with three top-five finishes in a row and contains three consecutive top-six finishes at the repaved Texas track. Though he qualified 30th, I’m sticking with Kurt Busch but placing him in my own garage. I enjoy his recent Texas results a whole lot — four straight top 10s, such as where I’m on his usage and I like his results using this package. He qualified 25th or worse in Las Vegas and Fontana but scored two top-six finishes along with an average of 33.0 points in these races. An additional benefit of rostering Kurt: He’s not a particular popular play right now based on possession.
The additions to my lineup begin with the pole sitter Jimmie Johnson. Do I feel comfortable with this? Not entirely based on the 2019 body of work thus far, however I have not used him yet, I guess he should be in a position to receive some point points and he’s been fast all weekend highlighted by his topping the 10-lap plank in closing practice. I putting Keselowski in my lineup like I go all on Penske without a surprise of a single Steve Letarte (why check one when you can assess all three). He’d the fourth-best 10-lap typical in final clinic and again, Penske has this package dialed in
Which explains the reason I am so bullish on this team.
My last place was between Elliott, Kyle Larson, Daniel Suarez and Denny Hamlin. Larson has the worst starting spot of the four but had the best 10-lap average along with a powerful 15-lap average as well (h/t @MikeJoy500). Suarez qualified well, but I already feel like I’m taking a risk with”Seven-Time.” Hamlin has been better than most four using this bundle, but he’s entire Texas body of work isn’t great, so that leaves me with Elliott. I enjoy the beginning spot and the background he’s had at Texas — a pretty consistent top-10 car here, so he gets the nod.
Because I’m all in on Penske, I will be keeping the 2018 Large 3 trio of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. on the sidelines as a tradeoff. Do not want to be stuck playing among the boys if they’re having just an average day. Busch is so good at Bristol and Richmond that he will maintain my lineup in the coming weeks, I believe we have not seen the 4 group’s best yet and Truex has many good tracks coming up in another month — Richmond, Dover and Kansas.
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