Florida Panthers: Ain’t no Sunshine When He’s Gone

The hockey world was shocked this week when the Florida Panthers, apparently out of nowhere, fired head coach Gerard Gallant after a 3-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes. Given the harms the Cats have had this year, their 11-10-1 record appeared commendable and Gallant was in the midst of a division title-defending season.
It has become clear that ownership desired to take the team in another direction than Gallant was willing to and that there have been reports of friction between both parties when the 53-year-old coach refused to adopt analytics. Tom Rowe, the man taking over as the Panthers’ interim bench boss, voiced willingness to utilize analytics within his training style and that ultimately contributed to Gallant’s passing.
When I heard this news, my first reaction was to feel bad for Gallant. That regret quickly subsided, but once I obtained the numbers of NHL teams have done in their first game with a new coach and realized that there is significant money to be produced in evaporating the Panthers.
Since the start of this 2014-15 season, teams with new head coaches are 8-17 within their first games under new leadership. That’s a bet that is cashed 68% of their time if you’ve faded the team using a brand new bench boss.
If you look at this another way and only take into consideration coaches who started with their teams midseason, but that record falls to 1-6 — a cash rate of 85.7.
The Panthers will play the Chicago Blackhawks tonight in their first match under Rowe and I see very few situations where the Panthers win this game. Not only will the Panthers have to adapt to a brand new system with just two days of turnaround, but they will also have to do it from a’Hawks team that’s playing its first match at home in two weeks.
Although they’ve been slumping a bit recently, the Blackhawks are 8-1-2 in the United Center this year and will be relishing the opportunity to play this reeling team on ice.
I am a big fan of stats and also what they can do to the sport of baseball but what we’ve observed from groups who have gone gangbusters with allowing stats direct their decision-making and hockey philosophy — it is not a simple transition.
The Arizona Coyotes are a terrific illustration of this. They made headline news during the offseason when they hired a 26-year-old, John Chayka, as their general manager. This choice was based solely on Chayka’s analytical history so far it hasn’t exactly repaid. The’Yotes have only eight wins this season and are tied for dead last in the league.
I really like the Panthers’ — entirely healthful — roster and I guess this choice pays off in the long run but for tonight, and likely a while moving forward, Florida is prime fade material. Matters could be getting much darker until the sun comes up in Sunrise.

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