This can it be — or isn’t going to happen weekly? We all covered all three of our Week 2 NFL selections here and it was magnificent. But let’s be honest; these games are maybe 53/47 or 54/46 coin flips, even though we’re doing our job correctly. We can readily have whiffed on those three. Keep choppin’ wood.
Speaking of which, following is Thursday’s all-AFC South matchup (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL) between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Depending on where you store, the Titans opened at anywhere between PK and –2.5 on the NFL odds board; that is at distinct heights of vigorish, obviously. We’ll sort out that .
First, which side do we want? If we hammer that total, and/or? It’s a overall that is low indeed, but the consensus reports that are early reveal 63 percent of players carrying the’beneath,’ compared to 55-percent support for the Jags. Let us dig deep, peel back the layers, and yadda yadda.
Power Station
Regrettably, Monday implies we do not possess Jeff Sagarin’s Week 3 projections to utilize yet, but the people at FiveThirtyEight believe Tennessee is great enough to be a 5-point road fave in this contest. Well now. If we had another source to create our journalism whole.
Oh, yeah: the Football Power Index of ESPN. They have the Titans winning 60.9 percent of their time, which translates to some fair Moneyline of –156 with the tasty SBR Odds Converter. And that is a shade higher than –3 for an equal vig-free disperse, based on Wizard of Odds. Still pretty good for the road team.
Cents and Sensibility
We do not want to bore you annually with parsing the different spreads at vigs, but we’ll do it one more time to get this game, so you can find it out for yourself next time. The concept is to find the very best price that you can. Very, very sparse. Much like graphene.
Here’s the juice
Sportbet: Titans PK (–123)
Matchbook: Titans –1.5 (–103)
bet365: Titans –2 (–105)
Right away, we could throw Titans — 2, as you have to pay more juice to have that of danger out. Assessing the remaining two lines utilizing the scintillating SBR Half-Point Calculator, we discover that 1.5 (–103) is roughly the same as PK (–114). Yet again, it behooves us to carry the danger at the juice that is low.
Free NFL Pick: Titans –1.5 (–103) at Matchbook
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks album through Week two: 2-0 ATS, 2-0 Totals
Read more: https://conservativewatchnews.org/mlb